US steps up Pakistan raids to thwart al-Qaeda 'October surprise' plot

The Pentagon has ordered that raids on suspected terrorist targets within Pakistan be stepped up to pressurise al-Qaeda leaders and distract them from preparing attacks on American targets elsewhere.

"The aim is to disrupt their scope for planning and keep their leaders on the move so that it is more difficult for them to co-ordinate complicated plots," a senior US intelligence official told The Sunday Telegraph.

The operations launched from neighbouring Afghanistan have led to sharply increased tensions with Pakistan's armed forces since President George W.Bush recently authorised assaults involving "boots on the ground" without prior approval by Pakistan's government, a supposed US ally.

Those hostilities almost turned lethal last week when Pakistani troops shot at two clearly marked US helicopters, and the two sides then traded fire. The Pentagon said the aircraft were just inside Afghan air space but Pakistani officials insisted they had crossed the volatile border.
There were no injuries in the clash but US and Pakistani officers have arranged meetings this week to discuss the tensions. While new Pakistani president Asif Zardari praised US support for his country as a "blessing" on Friday in New York, senior officials in Islamabad angrily warned US troops not to intrude on its territory.

The US has been increasingly alarmed about the growth of attacks on Nato forces in Afghanistan launched from safe havens established by Islamic terror groups in the lawless mountainous tribal districts just inside Afghanistan.

Robert Gates, the defence secretary, told lawmakers last week that an estimated 30 to 40 per cent of attacks in Afghanistan were staged by fighters based in, or commanded from, Pakistan - a significant rise on previous years.

The approach of the US election has fuelled fears that al Qaeda or its allies, including the increasingly active Haqqani network, will seek a headline-grabbing strike against a symbolic American target such as an overseas embassy.

Last week's devastating truck bomb attack on Islamabad's Marriott Hotel further highlighted security concerns in Pakistan. The blast claimed the lives of 53 people, including two US military personnel, the Czech ambassador and a Danish intelligence officer.

"The level of sophistication and destruction was a message to the international community and the Pakistanis that we can pretty much hit you any place, any time," said Seth Jones, a senior regional analyst with the Rand Corporation, a leading security think-tank.

Kamran Bokhari, Middle East director at Stratfor, an intelligence analysis company, said that the scale of the attack - involving up to 1,000 kilogrammes of explosives - was a clear indication that al Qaeda or its allies were involved.

"The target and modus operandi have the signature of a sophisticated jihadi operation," he said. "The hotel is in a very sensitive area. If they can hit the Marriott, why can't they hit courts or ministries or the prime minister's house?"

Against this backdrop, a senior US intelligence official said that al Qaeda was seeking to stafe a major attack on an American target close to the election, to test the new president-elect.

"Their goal would not be to influence the election but merely to send a message that they are still a force to be reckoned with," the official said. "They know that a successful attack in the election season will have maximum impact, and they want to give the new president the jitters."

Any attack in the weeks before the Nov 4 election - what is known in American political circles as an "October surprise" - would almost certainly give a decisive boost to John McCain, the Republican candidate who already holds a commanding lead on questions of national security.
The US has for several years attacked suspected militant bases inside Pakistan with missiles fired from Predator drones. Tribesmen regularly shoot at the unmanned aircraft, although both the US and Pakistan rejected claims that a drone that crashed near the border last week was broight down by gunfire.

But in July, Mr Bush approved classified orders authorising special operations forces to conduct ground assaults inside Pakistan without seeking Islamabad's approval after his commanders presented him with evidence about the militants' increasingly secure bases in the tribal areas. Small commando units are flown in and out by helicopter for precisions raids.

"To tackle the insurgency in Afghanistan, you have to deal with what's happening in Pakistan," said Mr Bokhari. "It's not just the border now.

Pakistan increasingly feels like a state under siege."

Mr Jones said: "The US has been increasingly aware that the command and control networks for groups such as Al Qaeda and its allies in the Haqqani network conducting attacks in Afghanistan are based in Pakistan."

The new US approach has infuriated senior Pakistani commanders who feel freer to express their anger since President Pervez Musharraf was forced from office. New army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani has told his US counterparts that US incursions without prior approval are "unacceptable".

Pakistan is also mounting a major ground offensive against militants in the Bagaur region and claims to have killed 1,000 fighters in an operation that may have prompted the Marriott attack in retaliation.

But Gen Kiyani's combative approach has taken the US aback. "He is trying to assert himself more than they (US) expected and sooner than they expected," a Western diplomat said.
Relations plummeted after US commandos landed by helicopter on a raid in early September in Pakistan and killed seven innocent civilians, according to the Pakistanis. The mood was already raw after a US missile fired from Afghanistan killed several Pakistani soldiers at a border post in June.

Pakistani army officials said that the Americans do not understand that Gen Kiyani is already facing major obstacles in deploying his soldiers against the militants.
"It is just adding to the problem for him to engage these soldiers against the militants when they are being taunted by their fellow Muslims that they are working for the US against the Muslims," said a senior army official.

Scores of soldiers have deserted in the past few years especially when they were stationed in the tribal areas after refusing to fight. Nearly 1200 Pakistani soldiers have died since in the tribal region since 2001.

"There is a limit to what one could cooperate and army chief alone knows how difficult it is for his to keep the morale of his soldiers," the same official said.

Pakistan Tells US to Stay Away From Border

One day after a reported five minute exchange of fire between Pakistani and US troops along the Afghan border, Pakistani government spokesman Akram Shaheedi warned the US-led coalition forces “not to violate territorial sovereignty of Pakistan as it is counterproductive to the war on terror.” President Asif Ali Zardari described US support as a “blessing,” however the general trend appears to point to relations between the two countries continuing to deteriorate.
Tensions have grown worse since US forces began their reported “the gloves have come off” strategy of escalating unilateral attacks into Pakistan’s tribal regions earlier this month. The most dramatic event was an unprecedented attack on a small South Waziristan village by US helicopters and ground troops which officials say killed 20 civilians. Since then, the US has launched multiple air strikes into North and South Waziristan, which Secretary of Defense Robert Gates defended as necessary to “protect our troops.”
The attacks have led to anti-US protests in Waziristan and repeated warnings from Pakistani officials. Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Parvez Kayani announced that foreign forces would no longer be allowed to operate inside Pakistani territory, and Army spokesman Major-General Athar Abbas said forces had been ordered to retaliate against any incursions.
Since then, there have been two reported incidents of Pakistani forces opening fire on US helicopters attempting to cross the border in addition to yesterday’s brief firefight, which according to Pakistani officials also began when US helicopters strayed across the border.
The attacks have also raised the ire of tribal militias, with one large jirga in South Waziristan announcing last week that it has decided to take up arms against the American forces. There has also been increasing speculation that the US policies led to last weekend’s Islamabad Marriott Hotel bombing. This view is supported by messages from the group claiming credit for the blast warning it will hit others who, like the hotel’s owner, “facilitate Americans and NATO crusaders.”
The group, which is calling itself Fedayeen Islam, is of unknown origin and has no apparent history. The name of the group appears to be a matter of some contention, however, as the Tehreek e-Taliban Pakistan has complained that they already have a subsidiary branch using the same name, and they had nothing to do with the bombings. The TTP has urged the new organization to choose a different name under which to conduct its future terror attacks.

Pakistani tribes vow reprisal for U.S. missile attacks

The new U.S. strategy of unilateral attack against suspected militants inside Pakistani territory is threatening to send moderate Pakistani tribesmen to go fight alongside extremists against coalition forces in neighbouring Afghanistan.

The move piles more pressure on the fragile new democratic government in Islamabad, which is struggling to defend Pakistan's role in the war on terror against a hostile public that sees U.S. aggression as being as much of a danger as the Islamic militants.

Over the weekend, tribal chiefs in North Waziristan, the part of Pakistan's tribal borderland that was struck by the most recent civilian-killing U.S. missile attack, vowed to take the fight to Afghanistan if the United States does not halt attacks into Pakistan. These community leaders, representing the majority of people in North Waziristan, had not previously supported the extremists, but they are fiercely independent, armed and willing to fight anyone who trespasses on their land. Their anger could easily spread to other six other "agencies" that make up the tribal belt, several of which have also been subject to U.S. attacks.

There has been an intensified bombardment of the tribal territory with U.S. missile strikes against suspected Taliban and al-Qaeda training camps and hideouts, compounded by the first U.S. ground raid into the area earlier this month, apparently in exasperation at Pakistan's inaction.

Reacting to the missile attack Friday in North Waziristan, tribal chiefs from the area, representing around half a million people, called an emergency jirga - or tribal meeting - on Saturday.

"If America doesn't stop attacks in tribal areas, we will prepare a lashkar [tribal army] to attack U.S. forces in Afghanistan," tribal chief Malik Nasrullah announced. "We will also seek support from the tribal elders in Afghanistan to fight jointly against America."

During the past month, there have been seven U.S. missile strikes in the tribal area, about the same number as the whole of last year, representing a huge escalation in American intervention in Pakistan. The ground assault, which took place in South Waziristan, provoked a sharp rebuke from the Pakistan army, which is otherwise an ally in the "war on terror." Washington believes that Taliban and al-Qaeda militants fighting the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan use Pakistan's tribal area as a safe haven.

"If the Americans are coming to sort it out with force, they would create more enemies," said Ayaz Wazir, a retired Pakistani diplomat who is a tribal chief from South Waziristan. "The Americans might have supersonic jets and we might have to fight with stones in our hands, but we will stand up."

Analysts believe that U.S. intervention could set the tribal area on fire and reverse a series of recent setbacks for the militants. Some of the Pakistani tribes have risen up against the Taliban, in border areas of Dir and Bajaur, forming lashkars to fight them. The Pakistani military has finally taken on the extremists, in battles in Bajaur and Swat, a valley in the north west, while the democratic government has, for the first time, been trying to make the case to the public that the struggle against the militants is Pakistan's war, not America's.

Pakistan's new President, Asif Ali Zardari, has arrived in Britain, on a private visit but he is expected to meet British Prime Minister Gordon Brown tomorrow, to discuss the situation along the Pakistan-Afghan border. Mr. Brown is likely to press for greater Pakistani action against militants in the tribal area and may go along with U.S. calls for integrating the tribal territory into the conflict in Afghanistan as one theatre of war - an idea that will be resisted by Pakistan.
Mr. Zardari and Pakistan's Prime Minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, said in a joint statement during the weekend that: "The sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country should be respected at all cost."

An editorial published yesterday in The News, a Pakistani daily, said: "The Islamabad government is aware the U.S. strikes are badly undermining its authority, weakening the standing of the Pakistani army and, as such, aiding the militants in their task of whipping up greater internal support."

Pak troops open fire at US military helicopters

Firing by Pakistani troops forced US military helicopters to turn back to Afghanistan after they crossed into Pakistani territory in the early hours of Monday, Pakistani security officials said. The incident took place near Angor Adda, a village in the tribal region of South Waziristan where US commandos in helicopters raided a suspected al-Qaida and Taliban camp earlier this month. "The US choppers came into Pakistan by just 100 to 150 metres at Angor Adda. Even then our troops did not spare them, opened fire on them and they turned away," said one security official. Pakistan is a crucial US ally in its war on terrorism, and its support is key to the success of Western forces trying to stabilise Afghanistan. But Washington has become impatient over Islamabad's response to the threat from al-Qaida and Taliban fighters in Pakistan's tribal regions on the border. At least 20 people, including women and children, were killed in the South Waziristan raid earlier this month, sparking outrage in Pakistan and prompting a diplomatic protest. Pakistani army chief General Ashfaq Kayani said in a strongly worded statement last week that Pakistan would not allow foreign troops onto its soil and Pakistan's sovereignty and territorial integrity would be defended at all costs. Another security official said on Monday that US armoured vehicles were also seen moving on the Afghan side of the border, while US warplanes were seen overhead. He said Pakistani soldiers sounded a bugle call and fired in the air, forcing the helicopters to return to Afghan territory. Military spokesman Major Murad Khan confirmed that there had been shooting. But he said the American helicopters had not crossed into Pakistani airspace and Pakistani troops were not responsible for the firing. "The US choppers were there at the border, but they did not violate our airspace," Khan said. "We confirm that there was a firing incident at the time when the helicopters were there, but our forces were not involved." The New York Times newspaper reported last week that US President George W Bush has given clearance for US raids across the border. The raid on Angor Adda on September 3 was the first overt ground incursion by US troops into Pakistan since the deployment of US forces in Afghanistan in late 2001. The United States has intensified attacks by missile-firing drone aircraft on suspected al-Qaida and Taliban targets in Pakistani tribal lands in the past few weeks.

US Attack in Pakistan No Isolated Incident

An early morning attack on a South Waziristan village by US helicopters and ground forces on September 3rd may have been unprecedented, but according to a report by National Public Radio, this was no isolated incident but rather “phase one” of a three stage plan to escalate attacks in Pakistani tribal regions aimed at targeting al-Qaeda safe havens. NPR quotes one source as saying “the gloves have come off”.Though neither the Pentagon nor the Bush Administration would discuss the report, it is in keeping with other reports received in the past few days regarding a secret directive by the Bush Administration which came to light last week. The directive came entirely without approval from Pakistan’s recently elected civilian government or its military, according to officials.The South Waziristan attack which killed 20 civilians, though the only one involving ground troops so far, is not the only US strike on Pakistani territory in recent days. Two airstrikes near the North Waziristan town of Miramshah last week by US Predator Drones, one on Monday and one on Friday, killed 23 and 14 people, respectively. Both strikes targeted militants, but women and children were also reported among those killed. No prominent al-Qaeda or Taliban figures were killed in either of the attacks.Pakistan’s populace and government have both reacted quite negatively to the attacks. Both houses of Pakistan’s parliament passed resolutions condemning the South Waziristan attack, and the opposition has called for the government to withdraw from the war on terror if the US strikes don’t cease.This has put newly elected President Asif Ali Zardari in a tough position. On the one hand, he has pledged his commitment to “stand with the United States” in its war, but he must attempt to balance that with his increasing dependence on tribal area MPs to maintain his coalition’s dwindling majority. Beyond that, with much of Pakistan’s military committed to fighting large scale offensives in Swat Valley, Wazir tribesmen have threatened to withdraw from a long-standing peace deal with the government if they are unable to halt the American attacks.Pakistan’s military has also spoken out strongly against the US strikes, with Chief of Army Staff General Parvez Kayani warning that foreign forces would no longer be allowed to conduct missions on Pakistani soil. Another high ranking military official later confirmed that the army has been ordered to retaliate against any foreign troops inside the country. Major General Jeffrey Schloesser warned Pakistan recently that if it does not step up its fight against the militants “a new kind of war could well begin”.NATO seems to appreciate the palpable danger in attacking targets inside Pakistan over the objections of its government, and has announced that it will not participate in any US strikes. The Bush Administration appears not to feel the same way, the agreed to rules of engagement with Pakistan notwithstanding. But with sentiment towards to US government already suffering severe harm from “phase one,” can the alliance possibly survive the next two phases, whatever they may be?

5 Militants Killed in US Drone Attack

A suspected US missile strike has killed five people in a Pakistani village less than a day after the US military chief reiterated American respect for Pakistan's sovereignty.

A Pakistani security official says five militants died when four missiles from a suspected US drone hit a compound in South Waziristan, near the Afghan border.

Another official said the attack on a container loaded with ammunition and explosives was the result of better US-Pakistani intelligence sharing and both countries had worked together on the attack.

Cross-border attacks were discussed at a meeting between the U-S military chief Admiral Michael Mullen, the Pakistan Army chief General Ashfaq Kayani and Pakistan's Prime Minister Yusuf Gilani in Islamabad on Tuesday

Admiral Mullen reiterated a commitment to respect Pakistan's sovereignty.

Tensions between the 'war on terror' allies have intensified since American troops mounted a ground assault on a Pakistani village last month.

Pakistan army chief criticizes U.S. raid

Pakistan's military chief on Wednesday lashed out at the United States over cross-border raids by American troops from Afghanistan and said his country's sovereignty will be defended “at all cost.”

In an unusually strong public statement, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani said a raid last week into Pakistan's South Waziristan region killed innocent civilians and could backfire on the anti-terror allies.

He said such operations were covered by no agreement between Pakistan and U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan and risked stoking militancy in a region which Washington regards as an intolerably safe haven for al-Qaeda and Taliban militants.

“Falling for short term gains while ignoring our long term interest is not the right way forward,” Gen. Kayani said, according to the statement released through the military's media wing.
“To succeed, the coalition would be required to display strategic patience and help the other side the way they want it, rather than adopting a unilateral approach.”

The Pakistan government already hauled in the U.S. ambassador in Islamabad to lodge a strong protest over a highly unusual raid by helicopter-borne grounds troops into South Waziristan last week which residents said killed about 15 people.

Officials have said they included civilians, though acknowledged they had no first-hand information.

U.S. officials have confirmed that American troops carried out the operation, but provided no details. The objective and results of the mission remain unclear.

Together with a barrage of suspected U.S. missile strikes into Pakistan's border zone, the raid indicates that Washington is getting more aggressive against militant targets beyond Afghanistan's frontier, despite the political fallout in Pakistan, a key U.S. ally.

A U.S. missile strike Monday in the North Waziristan tribal region destroyed a seminary and houses associated with a veteran Taliban commander and killed 20 people, including some women and children as well as four foreign militants, officials said.

The tribal belt is considered a possible hiding place for Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahri.

Three Pakistani intelligence officials identified the foreign militants as Abu Qasim, Abu Musa, Abu Hamza and Abu Haris. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of their jobs' sensitivity.

Abu Haris led al-Qaeda efforts in the tribal areas, while Abu Hamza led activities in Peshawar, the main northwest city, according to the intelligence officials, who said they got the details from informants and agents in the field.

Two U.S. officials said the strike was carried out by the CIA. The American officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss CIA operations.
Gen. Kayani had maintained an impeccably low profile since taking over the pivotal position of army chief from U.S. ally and former coup leader Pervez Musharraf last year.

Parties which won February elections forced Mr. Musharraf to quit as president last month. The military, which has dominated Pakistan for much of its 61-year history, has said it will follow the lead of the new civilian government.

But in a measure of the sensitivity surrounding U.S. military action on its soil, even in the tribal belt where the state has minimal control, Wednesday's statement contained Gen. Kayani's first public criticism of American policy.

“The rules of engagement with the coalition forces are well defined” and foresee Pakistan alone taking action against militants inside its borders, Gen. Kayani said. “There is no question of any agreement or understanding with the coalition forces” that allows them to operate in Pakistan, he said.

The general defended Pakistan's policy of seeking reconciliation in its wild tribal belt. He insisted the army was committed to eliminating militants, but said it had to be sure of popular support.
“Reckless actions” which kill civilians “only help the militants and further fuel the militancy in the area,” he said.

“The sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country will be defended at all cost and no external force is allowed to conduct operations inside Pakistan,” he said.